Glossary

Definitions for every metric, chart, and data point on Polycopy.

All metrics are informational. Nothing on this page constitutes financial advice. Terms.

Performance Data

Performance Data: P&L, ROI, and volume sourced from Polymarket's public Leaderboard API (all-time, overall category).; These top-line metrics come directly from Polymarket's Leaderboard API and reflect the trader's all-time performance across all market categories. The P&L Rank shown is the trader's 30-day ranking on the Polymarket leaderboard.
P&L: All-time profit and loss for this wallet, sourced from Polymarket's public Leaderboard API.; Reflects the trader's total profit or loss across all resolved positions. Historical performance metrics in the sections below may show different values for specific time windows.
ROI: Return on investment calculated as P&L divided by trading volume from the Leaderboard API.; A positive ROI means the trader has earned more than they invested. This is the all-time overall figure from Polymarket's leaderboard.
Volume: Total trading volume for this wallet, sourced from Polymarket's public Leaderboard API.; Represents the total USD value of all trades this wallet has executed on Polymarket.
P&L Rank (30D): This trader's 30-day P&L ranking on Polymarket's public Leaderboard.; Rank is sourced from Polymarket's Leaderboard API using the MONTH (30-day) time period. #1 is the highest P&L trader. Rankings cover all Polymarket traders.

Historical Performance & P&L

Historical Performance Data: Performance metrics for the selected time window, plus an unrealized snapshot for open positions.; Switch windows to see if recent form matches longer-term results. Short windows and quiet periods can look noisy; a big day can dominate a 7D view.
Realized P&L: Sum of resolved position P&L in USD for the selected window.; Every tab shows performance for that specific time window. Live Performance above uses Polymarket's public Leaderboard numbers, which can differ from windowed views.
Unrealized P&L: Open-position mark-to-market from the latest snapshot. Not a final outcome.; Prices are indicative; actual settlement can differ. The card shows the snapshot date next to the value.
Total Volume: Combined BUY and SELL USD across intents in the window.
Total Volume Realized: USD invested in positions that have already resolved (settled).
Profit Factor: Gross winning dollars divided by gross losing dollars on resolved outcomes.; Above 1 means profits outweigh losses. Compare traders with similar volume and combine with win rate. A handful of huge wins or very small losses can inflate this value.
Peak Variance: Best and worst single-day resolved P&L in the selected window.; Uses daily rows when enough exist; otherwise shows lifetime extremes from the risk series. The daily average is the mean daily resolved P&L across active days.
Daily P&L Volatility: Standard deviation of daily resolved P&L in USD over the lifetime active-day series.; A few huge days can dominate variance. Compare across traders with similar activity levels.
Days: Active trading days (with at least one intent) vs total calendar days in the window.; Up days and down days are active days with positive vs negative resolved daily P&L. A flat resolved P&L day still counts as active if there were intents.
Days Up / Down: Active days with positive vs negative resolved daily P&L for the selected window.; The P&L rank badge shows this trader's ranking for 7D, 30D, or lifetime. Rank compares tracked wallets only.
Days Up: Active trading days with positive resolved daily P&L.
Days Down: Active trading days with negative resolved daily P&L.
Days Active / Inactive: Days with trading activity vs inactive days since first trade in view.
Profitable Weeks: Share of active calendar weeks with positive net resolved P&L in the selected window.
Total P&L: Realized P&L plus unrealized mark-to-market estimate for open positions.; Unrealized uses market prices that can move before settlement.
Blended P&L: Resolved P&L for the window plus the current unrealized snapshot.; All-time uses the same realized basis as Live when available. For shorter windows, percent is calculated vs invested resolved in that window. Unrealized is not window-scoped.
All-time Total P&L: All-time resolved P&L plus the current unrealized snapshot.; Percent is calculated vs all-time invested resolved USD. Changing the time window does not affect lifetime realized.
P&L Rank: Rank by realized P&L vs wallets we track. #1 = best.; For 7D and 30D we compare to the prior window of the same length. 'Places up/down' is prior rank minus current rank. Universe is our tracked wallets; a top rank here is not necessarily top on all of Polymarket.
ROI: Return on invested capital for resolved positions in the window.; Resolved P&L divided by invested resolved USD. Not the same as ROI on total account balance; denominators are position-invested amounts only.

Trading

Trading Section: Trade counts, win rate, sizing, hedge rate, and risk metrics for the selected window.; Ranks compare this wallet to others in the same window. Sample gates (e.g. Sharpe) hide unstable metrics when data is thin.
Trades: Count of trade intents (logical BUY/SELL actions) in the window.
Win Rate: Resolved wins divided by total resolved positions in the window.; Contextualize with average win/loss size (asymmetry) and volume. A high win rate with tiny wins and rare large losses can still lose money overall.
Markets: Number of distinct markets this trader has taken positions in that have resolved during the selected time window.; Open markets are those that still have live trading prices and are used for unrealized P&L calculations.
Hedged Markets: Percentage of markets where both sides were held (e.g. YES and NO). Count-based: number of hedged markets divided by total markets traded.; High values often mean market-making or arbitrage-style activity rather than pure directional bets. Requires at least 15 traded markets for reliable data.
Buys vs Sells: Number of BUY intents versus SELL intents in the selected time window.; A high buy-to-sell ratio suggests the trader is primarily an accumulator. More sells may indicate active position management or profit-taking behavior.
Average Trade Size: Average USD per trade intent (one logical BUY or SELL).; Total notional divided by trade count in the window.
Sharpe Ratio: Risk-adjusted return from daily resolved P&L, annualized (sqrt-365 style).; Higher suggests smoother equity curve vs volatility. Only trust with enough daily observations. Very few days or one outlier move makes this unstable. The cohort bar places this wallet on the same scale as other tracked wallets.
Sharpe: Same as Sharpe Ratio: (avg daily P&L / std dev) * sqrt(365).
Win/Loss Asymmetry: Average win size divided by average loss size (absolute).; Above 1 means typical wins are larger than typical losses. Pair with win rate: profitable strategies often combine reasonable win rate with favorable asymmetry. One massive win or loss can skew averages.
Max Drawdown: Largest peak-to-trough drop in cumulative resolved P&L (USD and % of peak).; Calculated from the lifetime daily P&L series. Past drawdown does not cap future losses; leverage and new markets can behave differently.
Frequency: Trading tempo bucket from average daily trades on days the wallet was active.; Higher bucket = more intents per active day.
Position Size: Average USD invested per resolved position.; Invested resolved USD divided by resolved position count.
Resolved Positions: Positions that reached resolved status in the window (per outcome side).; Not the same as number of markets traded; one market can have multiple positions.
Predictions: Open positions not yet resolved. Current exposure, distinct from individual trade intents.
Total USD: Combined BUY and SELL USD across intents in the window.
Buy USD Volume: Total USD from BUY intents including open and resolved positions.
Average Hold Time: Average time from open to close or resolution.; Median shown where available for context.
Avg Hold Time: Average hours positions are held before resolution or close in the window.
Active Since: First trading date observed for this wallet in Polycopy's records.
Current Win Streak: Consecutive winning resolved positions counting back from the most recent.; Streaks are descriptive; they do not imply the next trade is more likely to win.

Behavior

Behavior Section: Style metrics: hedging, in-game buys, win/loss asymmetry, and exit timing.; Spot market-making vs directional bias and whether wins are bigger than losses on average. Event-timing fields depend on data quality; small samples show 'n/a' on purpose.
Hedged USD %: USD-weighted hedge rate: notional in hedged markets divided by total traded notional.; Complements count-based hedge percentage. Shows whether hedging is size-heavy or many small probes. A single large hedged market can swing this percentage.
Sell Before Close %: Share of positions exited before official market close/end.; Semantics differ for sports vs politics; 'close' is model-dependent.
In-Game Buy Share: Share of buys placed after inferred game/event start vs all buys.; Depends on start-time data quality; mis-timestamps can misclassify buys.

Copy Score

Copy Score: Whether copying a trader has been worth its costs. Free on every trader, and about the person rather than any single trade.; Copy Score reads a trader's finished trades, subtracts what copying them costs — you buy in behind them, and there are fees — and reports what would have been left. The faces are Proven, Ahead, Caution, Losing, Not comparable and Not scored, and where we can score someone the profile shows the arithmetic: what they earned, what copying costs, and what a copier would have kept. A trader with very little finished history still gets a score, with a warning beside it. Not comparable and Not scored are the two cases with no verdict, and neither is a bad mark.

Smart Money Index

Polymarket Smart Money Index (PSMI): A daily 0–100 index measuring how active, how broadly profitable, and how capital-committed the top verified Polymarket traders are, relative to their own recent baseline.; Published once per day as a canonical close, so any quoted reading refers to a specific date. It combines four components: performance momentum (30%), breadth (25%), participation (25%), and capital conviction (20%). The PSMI describes what a verified cohort of traders is doing — it is not a forecast, not a directional call, and not financial advice.
Baseline (PSMI): The cohort's own trailing 90-day distribution, which every PSMI component is measured against. A reading of 50 means the cohort is behaving exactly as it usually does.; This is the most commonly misread part of the index. 50 is not the midpoint of an arbitrary scale and it is not a comparison against the wider market — it is this specific group of traders compared with their own recent norm. So the index answers 'is this unusual for them?' rather than 'are they doing well?'
Cohort (PSMI): The roughly 1,000 wallets the index is computed from, selected from a larger parity-verified pool by 30-day P&L rank.; Parity-verified means a wallet's calculated profit and loss reconciles to its on-chain totals within tolerance. Market makers and arbitrage bots are excluded, because their activity is mechanical and would swamp the discretionary trading the index is trying to observe. Membership is refreshed monthly rather than daily, so the index measures behavior changes rather than churn in who qualifies.
Performance Momentum (PSMI): How unusual the cohort's recent daily profit is against its own 90-day distribution, expressed as a z-score. Weighted 30%.; A z-score rather than a ratio of profit rates. That matters because a ratio breaks down when profit changes sign — a cohort moving from losses into profits produces a meaningless number. Above 50 means the past week is running ahead of the cohort's normal range.
Breadth (PSMI): The share of active cohort wallets that finished the past week profitable. Half profitable reads as 50. Weighted 25%.; Breadth is what separates a cohort winning across the board from one carried by a few enormous positions. Strong momentum with weak breadth means profits are concentrated — a materially different situation from the same score with strong breadth.
Participation (PSMI): The cohort's fills per day over the past week against its 90-day median, on a log scale. Weighted 25%.; The log scale makes the measure symmetric: a ratio of exactly 1.0 lands on 50, and doubling or halving sit an equal distance either side. Fill counts are used rather than volume because some warehouse volume figures count shares rather than dollars.
Capital Conviction (PSMI): Net capital the cohort is committing to positions — buys minus sells in dollars — against its own 90-day distribution. Weighted 20%.; Not to be confused with Conviction (sizing), a Custom-route bot setting that scales your ticket by how large one trader's bet is against their usual size. This is cohort-wide net capital deployed. It is deliberately not a buy/sell ratio: on Polymarket, buying NO is still a buy, so counting buys against sells says nothing about direction. The amount of capital committed carries information; the side it lands on does not.
PSMI Zones (Quiet, Watching, Active, Surging): Four labels describing the current activity level of the cohort. They describe activity, never market direction.; Zone boundaries are set from the index's historical distribution rather than round numbers, so that each zone stays rare enough to be meaningful — Surging is calibrated to roughly the top decile of days. There is no bullish or bearish PSMI reading: prediction markets are thousands of separate binary questions, not one asset with a direction.

Categories & Performance Slices

Performance by Categories: Performance sliced by category, bet type, or price bucket with cross-wallet ranks.; See where this trader excels or bleeds versus peers. Thin slices can look extreme; a huge rank on three trades is less informative than on hundreds.

Feed & Trade Cards

Outcome: The side (YES/NO or named outcome) the trader is betting on in this market.
Invested: Total USD the trader has put into this position (entry price × number of shares).
Entry: The average price per share the trader paid when entering this position.; Lower entry prices mean higher potential upside if the outcome wins (pays $1). Entry at $0.40 means 60% potential upside.
Current: The latest market price for this outcome. Compare to Entry to see unrealized gain or loss.
ROI (Feed Card): Unrealized return on this position: (Current − Entry) ÷ Entry as a percentage.; This is mark-to-market, not realized. The actual outcome depends on whether the market resolves in the trader's favor.
Copy Trade: Place the same trade as this trader in your own Polymarket wallet.; Your execution price may differ from the trader's entry, which is one of the costs Copy Score accounts for. Copy Score speaks to the trader, not to whether this price is still good value.
Fire Feed: A Premium feed of recent trades from traders who are not hard to copy, in a category they already have a record in.; A pre-filter, not a ranking: everything in the tab cleared the same bar and is shown newest first. 'All' feed shows every detected trade without filtering.
Live Score Badge: Real-time score or price data for sports events and crypto markets linked to a trade.; Clicking the badge opens the data source (ESPN for sports, Coinbase for crypto). Statuses progress: Scheduled → Live → Ended → Resolved.

Copied Performance

Copied Performance Section: How your copies of this trader are performing based on our execution snapshot.; These are your personal results from copying this trader — separate from the trader's overall performance stats shown above.
Open Positions (Copied): Positions you still hold after copying this trader (execution snapshot).
Win/Loss (Copied): Counts of your copied trades that closed with a gain vs a loss.
Total P&L (Copied): Your combined realized and unrealized P&L on positions copied from this trader.
Realized (Copied): Settled P&L on positions you copied from this trader.
Unrealized (Copied): Mark-to-market on your open copied positions. Not final until you close or markets settle.

Bots

Auto Copy Bots: The feature as a whole: bots that copy Polymarket traders for you, 24/7, under rules you set. Premium.; There are two kinds. A Trader Bot copies one trader you chose. A Strategy Bot copies many traders by a rule you did not have to write. Both live on your Bots page, both hold capital, and both can be paused.
Trader Bot: A bot that copies one Polymarket trader you chose, into your connected wallet, 24/7.; You pick the trader, then set capital, sizing and how selective to be. It is not blind mirroring — every signal passes your rules and our execution checks before an order is placed. Start one from any trader page with Copy this trader. Previously called a Trader Bot.
Strategy Bot: A bot that copies many traders by a published strategy, rather than one trader you picked.; You browse the catalog, pick a strategy, and set capital. The strategy decides which traders and trades to take. Coming soon.
Pause: Temporarily stops new copies while the bot stays active.; Open positions remain. Use Resume in Manage to copy new trades again. Trades the leader made while paused are not copied retroactively.
Stop: Permanently deactivates that bot.; Status shows Stopped — the bot will not trade. You cannot Resume a stopped bot. Create a new Trader Bot for that trader if you want to copy them again.

Trader Bot settings

Trading Behavior: The wizard setting that controls how selective a Trader Bot is about the trader's Copy Score. There are three: Selective, Balanced (the default), and Broad.; Every option trades the same way and at the same size — a flat $5 ticket with the same measured safety settings. What changes is which traders the bot will copy without a warning: Selective copies only traders whose finished record clears what it costs to copy them. Balanced adds traders the score cannot separate from break-even. Broad accepts anyone except traders measured as costly or unproven. The setting warns, it never blocks — the choice stays yours. Two separate routes exist beside the presets: Custom opens the full settings editor (and starts with no cap on open trades), and Mirror copies every trade at your flat ticket size. If you used Polycopy before: Conservative is now Selective, Moderate is Balanced, and Aggressive / No filter are Broad.
Circuit Breaker: Automatically pauses the bot if realised losses exceed this percentage of your allocated capital.; Managed presets (Selective, Balanced, Broad) use a 50% breaker; Custom and Mirror bots use 30%. It counts realised losses only — an open position that is merely marked down does not trip it. For example, a 50% breaker on $100 capital pauses the bot after $50 in realised losses.
Conviction (sizing): A Custom-only sizing mode that scales each copy from 0.5x to 3x of your base amount, based on how large the trader's bet is versus their usual size.; Available under the Custom route. The standard presets and Mirror use a flat ticket instead — flat sizing measured better than conviction-scaled sizing, which is why it is the default everywhere.
Mirror Sells: When enabled, the bot automatically sells positions when the trader you're copying sells theirs.; Turning this off means you'll need to manually close copied positions. Recommended to keep on unless you want to hold positions longer than the trader.
Max Per Trade: The maximum USDC your bot can spend on one copied trade — your order size ceiling, not a filter on the trader's order size.; Polycopy sizes each copy (Fixed, Conviction, or Kelly), then clamps between min and max per trade. It does not mean "only copy when the leader's order is under $X."
Min Per Trade: The minimum USDC your bot will attempt on one copied trade.; Platform floor is $5 for Trader Bots. Conviction and Kelly may suggest smaller amounts; min per trade bumps the order up to this floor when you have enough cash. Below $5 an order cannot reliably buy a position large enough to sell later.
Trade Amount: Fixed-mode sizing at bot creation: the exact USDC used for every copy.; Shown only when allocation is Fixed during setup. After activation, edit the same value under Manage → Max per trade (min per trade matches in Advanced).
Fixed Allocation: Every copied trade uses the same USDC size (your trade amount / max per trade).; Best when the leader's bet size is fairly stable and you want predictable copy sizes.
Conviction Allocation: Copy size scales with how large the leader's bet is relative to their average.; Not exact dollar-for-dollar mirroring. Size is clamped by min and max per trade. Closer to proportional copying than Fixed when bet sizes vary.
Kelly Allocation: Copy size uses a Kelly-style formula from estimated edge and your allocated capital.; Sizes from your bankroll and model edge, not the leader's notional. Use Fixed or Conviction if you care about matching trade scale.
Scale with Cash: When on, copy sizes shrink as the bot's available cash balance falls.; Protects against over-deployment late in the capital lifecycle. Turn off if you do not want sizes reduced as balance drops.
Daily Budget: Maximum total USD your bot will spend on new trades in a single day.; Limits how much capital is deployed daily. Leave off for no daily limit (the bot is still bounded by total capital).