Polycopy Intelligence Indexes
Polymarket Smart Money Index
What are Polymarket’s smart money traders doing today?
Today’s rating
1,000 parity-verified wallets · market makers excluded · updated daily
The sharpest wallets are pressing hard, and it is working.
- They’re trading at 0.90× their normal daily pace, 218,745 fills a day against a median of 243,769, and committing $29.1M a day in capital, above their $22.2M norm.
- It’s working. Daily profit is averaging $2.1M against a $656K baseline, and 648 of 833 active wallets are in profit.
- At 73 the index sits in the 100th percentile of the past year. It read 67 a week ago and 52 a month ago.
Previous close
73
ACTIVE
1 week ago
67
ACTIVE
1 month ago
52
WATCHING
Index history
Daily closes. Shaded bands mark the four zones.
What’s driving the reading
Four components, each normalised so 50 is the cohort’s own 90-day baseline.
Performance momentum
30% weightThe cohort averaged $2.1M in daily profit over the past week, above its 90-day average of $656K.
Breadth
25% weight648 of 833 active cohort wallets are profitable over the past week.
Participation
25% weightThe cohort is trading at 0.90× its median daily pace, at 218,745 fills a day against a 90-day median of 243,769.
Capital conviction
20% weightNet capital deployed averaged $29.1M a day this week, above the 90-day average of $22.2M.
This week in smart money
- The index rose 6 points on the week to 73, holding in ACTIVE.
- Capital conviction is leading, at 87.
- Over 30 days the index has gained 21 points, with 833 cohort wallets active this week.
Notable readings
Record events detected automatically when each daily close is archived.
The Polymarket Smart Money Index moved from WATCHING to ACTIVE, at 67.
2026-09-30
The Polymarket Smart Money Index moved from ACTIVE to WATCHING, at 54.
2026-09-27
The Polymarket Smart Money Index reached 73, its highest reading on record (previous high 69).
2026-09-21
The Polymarket Smart Money Index moved from WATCHING to ACTIVE, at 60.
2026-09-15
The Polymarket Smart Money Index moved from ACTIVE to WATCHING, at 52.
2026-09-07
How this index is built
- Cohort
- 1,000 parity-verified wallets · market makers excluded · updated daily
- Methodology version
- 2.0.0
- Refresh
- One canonical value per day, computed after the daily warehouse run. The live gauge refreshes every 30 minutes, but only daily closes are archived and citable.
- Series start
- 2026-07-28
The index describes what the verified cohort is doing. It is not a forecast, not a recommendation, and not a directional call on any market. Volume-based components use share volume; wash trading is mitigated by excluding market-making and arbitrage wallets from the cohort, and the residual is disclosed in the methodology.
Cite as: Polycopy’s Polymarket Smart Money Index (PSMI), 2026-10-07, methodology 2.0.0.