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Polycopy Intelligence Indexes

Polymarket Smart Money Index

What are Polymarket’s smart money traders doing today?

Today’s rating

1,000 parity-verified wallets · market makers excluded · updated daily

0100
46
WATCHING

Nothing unusual: smart money is behaving close to its own normal.

  • They’re trading at 1.37× their normal daily pace, 628,313 fills a day against a median of 457,660, and committing $29.5M a day in capital, below their $33.9M norm.
  • The results are mixed. Daily profit is averaging $138K against a $1.4M baseline, and 438 of 735 active wallets are in profit.
-5 vs previous closeas of 2026-08-23 (UTC close)
Polycopy2026-08-23 · polycopy.app/polymarket-smart-money-index

Previous close

51

WATCHING

1 week ago

50

WATCHING

Index history

Daily closes. Shaded bands mark the four zones.

Polycopy2026-08-23 · polycopy.app/polymarket-smart-money-index

What’s driving the reading

Four components, each normalised so 50 is the cohort’s own 90-day baseline.

Performance momentum

30% weight
31

The cohort averaged $138K in daily profit over the past week, below its 90-day average of $1.4M.

Breadth

25% weight
59

438 of 735 active cohort wallets are profitable over the past week.

Participation

25% weight
61

The cohort is trading at 1.37× its median daily pace, at 628,313 fills a day against a 90-day median of 457,660.

Capital conviction

20% weight
34

Net capital deployed averaged $29.5M a day this week, below the 90-day average of $33.9M.

Polycopy2026-08-23 · polycopy.app/polymarket-smart-money-index

This week in smart money

  • The index fell 4 points on the week to 46, holding in WATCHING.
  • Participation is running above the cohort’s baseline while performance momentum sits below it.
  • 735 of 1,000 cohort wallets traded this week.
Polycopy2026-08-23 · polycopy.app/polymarket-smart-money-index

Notable readings

Record events detected automatically when each daily close is archived.

  • The Polymarket Smart Money Index reached 53, its highest reading on record (previous high 51).

    2026-08-18

  • The Polymarket Smart Money Index reached 51, its highest reading on record (previous high 50).

    2026-08-17

  • The Polymarket Smart Money Index reached 50, its highest reading on record (previous high 47).

    2026-08-16

  • The Polymarket Smart Money Index reached 47, its highest reading on record (previous high 46).

    2026-08-15

  • The Polymarket Smart Money Index reached 46, its highest reading on record (previous high 43).

    2026-08-06

Polycopy2026-08-23 · polycopy.app/polymarket-smart-money-index

How this index is built

Cohort
1,000 parity-verified wallets · market makers excluded · updated daily
Methodology version
2.0.0
Refresh
One canonical value per day, computed after the daily warehouse run. The live gauge refreshes every 30 minutes, but only daily closes are archived and citable.
Series start
2026-07-28

The index describes what the verified cohort is doing. It is not a forecast, not a recommendation, and not a directional call on any market. Volume-based components use share volume; wash trading is mitigated by excluding market-making and arbitrage wallets from the cohort, and the residual is disclosed in the methodology.

Full methodology Download history (CSV)Free API

Cite as: Polycopy’s Polymarket Smart Money Index (PSMI), 2026-08-23, methodology 2.0.0.