Signals and copy score
Copy Score helps you see when a trade is more likely to beat the market.
Copy Score is Polycopy's 0–100 rating that estimates how likely a specific Polymarket trade is to beat the market, based on machine learning and trade profiling rather than raw statistics alone. We test whether a trader has historically created edge in this exact kind of setup, then publish that read directly on our trade cards. Across 687K+ analyzed trades, trades scoring 70+ have historically won 67.7% of the time with +5.76% average P&L — though past performance does not guarantee future results.
Example trade
Will BTC close above $150k by June?
Copy Score
B
Win Rate
58%
Avg P&L
+12% / +$184
Experience
412 trades
Conviction
2.1x
Our approach
What Is Copy Trading and How Does Polycopy Approach It?
Copy trading is a strategy where users replicate the positions of experienced traders in real time. On prediction markets like Polymarket, copy trading means following high-conviction bets from traders with verified track records. Polycopy's approach goes further — instead of blindly mirroring trades, it uses machine learning to score each trade's historical edge before surfacing it to users.
Polymarket is the world's most liquid prediction market. It aggregates the beliefs of thousands of sophisticated traders and distills them into a single price. That price is already very efficient.
What Polycopy's AI does is different: it looks at who is placing the trade. A 65¢ trade means something different coming from a trader with a 74% win rate on politics (52 trades, sizing 2.1× their average) versus a trader with 12 resolved trades and a 48% win rate. The market price doesn't know this. Our model does.
Copy Score is the output of that analysis — a letter grade (A through D) that answers: “given everything we know about this trader's history, conviction, and the market conditions, how confident are we that this specific trade wins?” Trades graded A have historically won more than 4 in 5 times across our backtested data.
We're not claiming to predict markets. We're helping you identify the most informed participants and the specific moments when they have the highest conviction.
Why copy score matters
Is Copy Trading Profitable Without an AI-Powered Score?
Copy trading can be profitable, but raw statistics alone are unreliable. A trader with a 70% win rate may still lose money if they consistently buy overpriced positions. The best copy trading platforms layer intelligence on top of raw signals. Copy Score exists because surface-level stats hide weak pricing — the machine-learned layer separates genuine edge from misleading numbers.
The core idea is simple: does this trader beat the market on trades like this one?
Traditional trading stats
A trader can post strong-looking stats and still add very little value if they mostly buy outcomes the market already prices correctly. Traditional stats are useful inputs, but on their own they leave the key question unanswered.
Copy Score
Copy Score brings price, context, and machine-learned pattern recognition back into the picture. In this study set, all trades averaged +0.0%, while A and B grade trades averaged +5.8%.
How copy score works
How Does the Copy Score Algorithm Work?
Copy Score combines trade profiling, trader history, and market context through a machine learning model trained on over 50 million historical trades. The algorithm evaluates conviction level, win rate, experience depth, market category, and entry price to produce a single letter grade. Unlike simple copy trading bots that mirror trades blindly, Copy Score assesses whether a specific trader has demonstrated real edge in this exact type of setup.
Trade profiling helps Polycopy understand why the trade is being made and what kind of setup it belongs to. That visible layer feeds the model, but the machine learning is what turns those signals into a more intelligent final read.
Trade class
Market category
Entry band
Bet type
Trader stats
Conviction
Win rate
Experience
ROI and P&L
ML algorithm
50M+ historical trades
Trade profiling inputs
Pattern recognition
Score calculation
Copy Score
B
The visible indicators help users understand the trade, but on their own they are not as useful as Copy Score because they are not always pointing in the same direction. The model combines them with many additional dimensions to make the final read faster and clearer.
Pure edge, not market probability
Copy Score is calculated after removing the market price from the probability scoring. The entry price a trader pays is factored out so that the score reflects only the statistical edge the trader brings to that type of trade — not how cheap or expensive the position was. A strong Copy Score grade means the trader has historically outperformed what the market price alone would predict, regardless of whether they entered at 20¢ or 80¢. This is true edge, not a reflection of market odds.
Copy score ranges
How Do You Read Copy Score Ranges?
Copy Score ranges from 0 to 100, grouped into zones that reflect historical trade quality. Lower ranges (0–30) show negative average returns, middle ranges (30–60) show mixed results, and upper ranges (60–100) show the strongest edge. The best copy trading apps surface these ranges clearly so users can filter for high-conviction trades without needing to interpret raw statistics themselves.
The simplest way to read the page is this: the low end of Copy Score is the weakest historical pocket, the middle needs more care, and the strongest edge sits at the top. In this study set, the cleanest outcomes show up in the A and B grade range.
Score tiers
What Does Each Copy Score Letter Grade Mean?
Copy Score assigns five letter grades from A (exceptional) to D (avoid). Grade A trades have historically won more than 4 in 5 times, while grade D trades fall below market-fair outcomes. Each boundary is validated against backtest data across thousands of resolved trades. This tiered system makes copy trading accessible — users can quickly filter for A and B grade setups without deep statistical knowledge.
A
Exceptional
≥ 85
Win Rate
~83.9%
ROI
+1.2%
Top decile. AI has high conviction. Historically wins more than 4 in 5.
B
Strong
75–84
Win Rate
~73.0%
ROI
+1.5%
Top quartile. Solid signal. Worth copying when other context supports it.
C+
Moderate
65–74
Win Rate
~61.0%
ROI
+1.5%
Above median. Consider copying if other signals are also strong.
C
Weak
55–64
Win Rate
~51.0%
ROI
+0.9%
Near base rate. AI has limited conviction. Lean on trader context.
D
Avoid
< 55
Win Rate
~32.0%
ROI
−1.0%
Bottom quartile. AI signals caution. Below market-fair outcomes.
Each grade boundary corresponds to a measurable jump in win rate from the backtest. The A/B boundary at 85 is the sharpest: a 7.8 percentage point jump in win rate between the adjacent bands.
Score vs market price
When Does Copy Score Add Information Beyond Market Price?
Copy Score adds the most value when it diverges from the market price by 5 or more percentage points. A high score on a trade the market prices low suggests the trader knows something the crowd does not. This divergence signal is what separates a smart social trading platform from a simple trade-mirroring tool — it identifies moments of genuine informational edge.
Key insight
The score adds the most actionable information in scenarios 2, 3, and 4 — where the delta between the score and the market price is 5 percentage points or more. When score ≈ price (scenarios 1 and 5), the model is confirming what the market already believes.
This is why Copy Score is designed to surface the edge over market price, not just a raw probability. The real question users should ask is: “Does the AI know something the market doesn't?”
Market category and trade context
How Does Market Category Affect Copy Trading Signals?
Market category is critical because traders perform differently across domains. A trader who excels at crypto markets may be average at politics. The best copy trading platforms account for this — Polycopy profiles each trader's performance by category, entry price band, and bet type, then feeds that context into Copy Score. This ensures a crypto trade is never judged using a trader's politics track record.
Market category
A trader can be strong in one category and ordinary in another. Copy Score uses market category so a crypto trade is not judged the same way as a politics trade.
Entry band
Price matters because the market is already telling you the implied probability. A trader’s history at one price range can look very different from another.
Bet type
Different market setups behave differently. Copy Score uses the shape of the trade, not just the market label, to compare a trader against the right context.
Other trade signals
What Signals Do the Best Copy Trading Apps Display?
The best copy trading apps show conviction level, trader experience, win rate, and ROI alongside the main score. These visible indicators help users understand why a specific trade scores high or low. On social trading platforms, transparency builds trust — users can see the reasoning, not just the output. Copy Score combines these signals with deeper pattern recognition to produce a final grade.
Conviction
Conviction compares this bet size to the trader’s usual size. When traders size up with purpose, outcomes can improve.
| Conviction | Avg P&L | Trades |
|---|
Experience
Experience tells you how much history the model has to work with and where the strongest pockets have shown up.
| Experience | Avg P&L | Trades |
|---|
Win rate
Win rate matters only in context. This table shows why surface-level win percentage alone can be deceptive.
| Win rate | Avg P&L | Trades |
|---|
Average ROI
Polycopy looks at return quality, not just raw activity. In the product, this also sits alongside dollar P&L context.
| Average ROI | Avg P&L | Trades |
|---|
These are the visible indicators users can reason about on the page. Copy Score uses them together with many other dimensions to produce the final read.
How it's built
How Is Copy Score Built and Validated?
Copy Score is built on 50 million+ historical trades using rolling time windows, multiple model families, and held-out validation sets. Unlike simpler copy trading bots that rely on a single metric, this system stress-tests its predictions across changing market regimes. The score had to demonstrate consistent edge on unseen data before Polycopy deployed it in production — ensuring users see a validated signal, not an overfitted number.
50M+
historical trades behind the headline claim
86.2M
resolved trades analyzed
374k
tracked markets
3.5k
tracked traders
Rolling and shifted windows
We used rolling and shifted time windows so the score had to hold up across changing market regimes, not just one convenient slice of history.
Multiple model families tested
Polycopy tested different model types and kept pushing until the results held up well enough to trust the score in real product surfaces.
Context-rich features
The score benefits from multi-dimensional context: trader history, market category, price, bet sizing, and the structure of the trade itself.
That is why Polycopy’s signal system is a real product differentiator. The intelligence comes from connecting the trade to the right trader history, then stress-testing whether that signal still works across different windows and different modeling approaches.
Snapshot as of 2026-03-16. Backtest window on this page: 2026-01-15 to 2026-03-17 across the top 100 wallets by realized P&L in the study set.
How to use it
How Should You Use Copy Score When Copy Trading?
Use Copy Score as a filter, not a directive. When copy trading on Polymarket, start by scanning for A and B grade trades, then verify that conviction, experience, and market context align. The score helps you evaluate trades faster but does not replace judgment. Social trading platforms work best when users combine algorithmic signals with their own market knowledge rather than following any single indicator blindly.
On the trade card, Copy Score should help you decide whether the setup is worth inspecting more carefully.
A stronger score means the trader, the context, and the supporting signals are lining up in a historically better way.
The best way to use the score is alongside the visible indicators. A strong score with healthy conviction, enough experience, and believable performance context is much more useful than any one stat in isolation.
Price movement matters. If the market price drops after entry, Copy Score can improve because the trade may become more attractive. In the product, Polycopy flags trades where price has dropped more than 20% since entry so users know the score may look better than it did at the moment the trader entered.
That is why the score should guide attention, not replace judgment. It helps users see edge faster. It does not remove risk.
Our philosophy
Why Does Polycopy Optimize for Win Rate Over Raw ROI?
Research from social trading platforms like eToro shows that users abandon strategies after 3–5 consecutive losses, regardless of long-run profitability. Polycopy optimizes Copy Score for win rate because is copy trading profitable if users quit before results materialize? No. A 78% win rate keeps users engaged and builds the trust required for long-term compounding — even at some cost to theoretical expected value.
Raw Probability Formula
77.8%
Win rate for top-25%
Best win rate. Users feel like they're winning. Trust builds, engagement sustains.
Kelly Edge Formula
65.2%
Win rate for top-25%
Balanced approach. Decent win rate and positive ROI. Works for both manual and automated users.
ROI Edge Formula
43.3%
Win rate for top-25%
Highest ROI (+7.6%) but wins less than half the time. Mathematically optimal but psychologically brutal.
Research from eToro and social trading platforms consistently shows that users abandon strategies after 3–5 consecutive losses, regardless of long-run profitability. Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky) established that losses feel approximately 2× more painful than equivalent gains feel good.
We chose the raw probability formula — not because the edge formulas are wrong, but because humans are not bots. The score optimizes for user trust and engagement, which requires high win rates, even at some cost to mathematical expected value.
Performance data
Is Copy Trading Profitable With Copy Score?
Yes — based on backtest data, Copy Score's top-graded trades (A and B) significantly outperform the study baseline. The highest range achieves win rates above 70% with positive average P&L across thousands of resolved trades. These results demonstrate that copy trading is profitable when filtered through a validated scoring system, though past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.
Methodology notes
What Methodology Does Copy Score Use?
Copy Score uses held-out validation on unseen trades, contextualized trader performance data, and rolling time windows to ensure generalization. The methodology prioritizes real-world applicability over academic complexity. All scores are validated against out-of-sample data so the signal reflects genuine predictive power — a standard that separates serious copy trading platforms from those publishing unvalidated metrics.
Held-out validation
The score was checked on unseen historical trades. The goal was not just a good in-sample story, but evidence that the signal generalizes.
Contextualized trader data
Trader performance is evaluated in context, not as one flat lifetime average. That is a major reason the score is more useful than surface-level stats.
Historical limits
Signals are built from historical outcomes. Markets change, trader behavior changes, and no backtest guarantees future results.
Indicator, not recommendation
Copy Score helps users evaluate trades more intelligently. It is not a buy or sell instruction.
Study snapshot generated 2026-03-16. The score ranges on this page use 0 resolved test trades from the top 100 wallets in the study set.
Start using Copy Score
Browse the feed, spot high-grade trades, and make faster decisions on Polymarket. For a practical walkthrough, read Understanding Copy Score in our Help Center, or learn how to configure bot rules with Copy Score floors and risk presets.
Keep reading
Performance Data
Backtest results & validation
Help: Understanding Copy Score
Grades, signals & how to use them
Help: Configure Bot Rules
Copy Score floors, presets & filters
Copy Trading Bots
Auto Copy with Copy Score filters
All Trading Bots
Every bot type on Polymarket
Kalshi vs Polymarket
Platform comparison for bots
Risk disclaimer
Does Copy Trading Guarantee Profits?
No. Copy trading does not guarantee profits. Even the highest-graded trades can lose, and past performance never ensures future results. Copy Score and all supporting signals are informational tools designed to help users evaluate trade quality more clearly. Markets change, trader behavior shifts, and no algorithm eliminates risk. Users should treat scores as decision-support indicators, not financial advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Traders with strong histories still lose, and even the best-looking setups can fail.
Copy Score can also change as price changes. A trade can look better or worse after entry if the market moves materially.
Polycopy does not provide financial advice. Use the score and the signals as tools for decision-making, not as instructions.