Alaska Senate Odds 2026
Live Polymarket prices for the Alaska Senate race, updated every 5 minutes. Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Chance | 7-day move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 74% | Not reported | $824K |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan | 26% | -1 pts | $510K |
| Ann Diener | <1% | Not reported | $37K |
| Dustin Darden | <1% | Not reported | $24K |
| Richard Grayson | <1% | Not reported | $25K |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | <1% | Not reported | $0 |
| David Leslie | <1% | Not reported | $2K |
What the market says
Polymarket traders price Mary Peltola at 74% to win the Alaska Senate race, against 26% for Sen. Dan Sullivan. That is the price traders are paying right now, not a forecast. It feeds into Senate control odds and the wider 2026 midterm markets.
How this market resolves
From Polymarket's market rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is favored in the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket?
Mary Peltola leads at 74%, with Sen. Dan Sullivan at 26%, as of Oct 16, 2026, 22:45 UTC. Prices move with every trade, so the live table on this page is the current read.
When is the Alaska Senate election?
Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How does the Polymarket Alaska Senate market resolve?
By Polymarket's published rules, shown in full on this page. They begin: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
What do Polymarket odds mean?
Each candidate trades as a Yes share priced between $0 and $1. A price of 70 cents means traders are paying for about a 70% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a poll and not a Polycopy forecast.
Can I copy traders who trade elections?
Yes. Great traders aren't always great to copy. Copy Score tells you which ones are. It is free on every trader and asks whether copying them has paid after the costs of copying. You can copy a trade yourself, or set up a Trader Bot to copy one trader into your own Polymarket wallet.
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