Michigan Senate Odds 2026
Live Polymarket prices for the Michigan Senate race, updated every 5 minutes. Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Chance | 7-day move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 70% | +2 pts | $1.0M |
| Mike Rogers (R) | 31% | -2 pts | $741K |
What the market says
Polymarket traders price Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 70% to win the Michigan Senate race, against 31% for Mike Rogers (R). That is the price traders are paying right now, not a forecast. It feeds into Senate control odds and the wider 2026 midterm markets.
How this market resolves
From Polymarket's market rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Top politics traders
Ranked by 30-day P&L in politics markets. P&L shows who won, not whether copying them would have paid. Check each trader's Copy Score before you copy.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored in the Michigan Senate race on Polymarket?
Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads at 70%, with Mike Rogers (R) at 31%, as of Oct 16, 2026, 22:46 UTC. Prices move with every trade, so the live table on this page is the current read.
When is the Michigan Senate election?
Election day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How does the Polymarket Michigan Senate market resolve?
By Polymarket's published rules, shown in full on this page. They begin: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
What do Polymarket odds mean?
Each candidate trades as a Yes share priced between $0 and $1. A price of 70 cents means traders are paying for about a 70% chance. It is what traders are paying, not a poll and not a Polycopy forecast.
Can I copy traders who trade elections?
Yes. Great traders aren't always great to copy. Copy Score tells you which ones are. It is free on every trader and asks whether copying them has paid after the costs of copying. You can copy a trade yourself, or set up a Trader Bot to copy one trader into your own Polymarket wallet.
Copy election traders worth copying
Copy Score is free on every trader. It shows whether copying them has paid after the cost of copying.
No credit card required
Disclaimer: Polycopy is an independent third-party tool and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket. Nothing on this page constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Trading fees apply to all trades executed through Polycopy (a flat 0.5%). Full terms.