Traders
P20_50 · at least 10 resolved positions. Copy Score rated Clears at the latest refresh.
List refreshed nightly.
Bots · General strategy−$25.65
Underdogs
Traders who buy between 20¢ and 50¢.
Real trading performance
Realized P&L · All time
All time−0.4%1,106 trades
Last 7 days+1.6%400 trades
Last 24 hours+10.7%40 trades
Returns shown as a percentage of traded volumeExplore performance →
01 · The idea
What this strategy copies
Underdogs copies the traders Copy Score rates Clears who also buy between 20¢ and 50¢: at least ten resolved entries in that range. Copy Score reads their whole record after the cost of copying them; the price requirement decides where they enter.
This is the opposite temperament to Favorites. Most of these positions lose, and the strategy works because the ones that win pay two to five times the stake. Expect a lower win rate, lumpier results, and longer stretches between wins. The list re-resolves nightly.
The setup
Polycopy maintains the trader list and trading settings. You choose your budget, winnings option and available limits.
Budget
Start from $100. Choose Keep or Compound for your winnings.
Funds stay in your Polymarket wallet.
Controls
Price, exposure and loss checks can prevent new copies. Pause new trading when needed.
Limits do not guarantee a maximum loss.
View all settings
Current launch defaults; your chosen settings apply to your bot. Filters updated Sep 15, 2026. Settings may change; better results are not guaranteed.
Traders copied
The traders it copies
- Copy Score
- Clears
- Trading pace / specialty
- P20_50 · at least 10 resolved positions
- Activity
- Active traders only
- Record verification
- Reconciled against Polymarket
- Excluded traders
- Market makers, arbitrage, high / very high frequency, transfer-funded and blocked accounts
- List refresh
- Nightly
- List limit
- 500 traders
- Rule version
- rule_v1_35de634386d9
Trade filters
Stored strategy filters
- Entry price
- 20¢ – 50¢
- Allowed categories
- All categories
- Blocked categories
- ESPORTS
- Model threshold
- Not set
- Minimum edge
- 0
- Minimum conviction
- 0
- Extra resolved-trade floor
- 0
- Maximum time to resolution
- No time limit
Budget & allocation
Launch defaults · example at $100
- Starting budget
- $100 – $5,000
- Allocation
- FIXED · $5 base order
- Source order sizing
- 5 – 5 USD
- Allocation weight
- 1
- Kelly fraction
- Not set
- Exposure cap
- $100
- Per-position cap
- $15
- Winnings
- Compound by default
Execution
Current launch defaults
- Order type
- GTD · 4-minute expiry
- Buy price tolerance
- 7%
- Sell price tolerance
- 5%
- Maximum spread
- 200 basis points
- Minimum position
- 8 shares · raise order size
- Group split trader fills
- On
- Follow trader sells
- On
- Source sell mirroring
- On
- Take profit
- Off
- After a position closes
- Real: 0h · Paper: 3h cooldown
- Paper duration
- 1–14 days · 14 by default
Protection & control
Defaults at $100 · no guarantee against loss
- Daily loss stop
- $20
- Circuit breaker
- 30%
- Dead-market guard
- On
- Dead-market price floor
- 4¢
- Dead-market drift limit
- 80%
- Pause / stop
- Stop new copies; review open positions separately
- Real trading requirements
- Premium · connected wallet · funds · trading authorization
- Unfilled opportunities
- May be skipped
02 · The record
How it has performed
Real trades across users running this strategy. Explore a period to see the results behind the headline.
The numbers that matter
Realized P&L
−$25.65
Unrealized P&L
+$61.76
Win rate
64%
390 won · 219 lost · sold excluded
Of volume traded
−0.4%
−0.7% of budget
$3,500 funding basis
$3,500 funding basis
Total trades
1,106
Last trade Sep 15, 11:45 AM UTC
Max drawdown
$245
Largest peak-to-trough fall in realized P&L
Profit factor
0.98×
Realized gains ÷ absolute realized losses, including sold fills
Volume
$7,027
$6 average filled trade
Historical backtest Simulated results and methodology
Backtest. Simulated on historical data, not a forecast.
Months positive
7 of 7
Typical month
+10.0%
Worst month
+6.3%
2026-02+7.6%
2026-03+7.2%
2026-04+6.3%
2026-05+10.0%
2026-06+10.7%
2026-07+11.8%
2026-08+11.5%
About 91% of this strategy's traders also appear in Flagship. It is a different way to narrow the same set of traders who clear Copy Score, not a separate bet.
Full methodology and disclosures
- Method: Walk-forward, 7 monthly point-in-time folds (Feb 2026–Aug 2026), ≥20¢ price bands, fees on, fills and slippage sampled, three simulated users, seed 42 — ml/backtester/scripts/run_strategy_walkforward.py --tag wf7 · pre-registered in docs/plans/STRATEGY_BACKTEST_DEFENSIBILITY_2026-08-23.md.
- Period 2026-02-01 to 2026-08-31 · version 2 · published Sep 9, 2026.
- 7 monthly point-in-time folds, Feb 2026–Aug 2026. The list was rebuilt as it would have stood on the 1st of each month and run through that month.
- Three simulated users per fold ($500 / $1,000 / $2,500); the figure is the median user. The engine's own interval straddles zero in 5 of 7 folds.
- Percentages are net P&L as a share of volume traded (trades × $5 ticket), not a return on capital: the $5-ticket engine leaves most of any budget idle.
- Price bands ≥20¢ only. The shipped house config trades down to 2¢ (priceMin 0.02) — this number does not yet describe the customer's exact configuration. Open decision: STRATEGY_BACKTEST_PRICE_FLOOR_2026-08-23.md.
- Fees: venue 3.845% entry / 3.538% exit as a cohort-blended constant (crypto books pay ~7%, politics ~0), builder 1% → 0.5% from 2026-08-06. Fills and slippage sampled per order from real book conditions.
- Single seed (42). Re-running under a different seed moved folds by ~20% in earlier work; treat the fold figures as ±20%.
- Baskets selected with the trader classifier as it stood on the run date, which post-dates the folds (operating-trait exclusions and the per-strategy axis are today's values; the copyability band is recomputed point-in-time). The candidate pool is every classified wallet active in the last 180 days plus every wallet in the earlier export, so older folds see the same universe as new ones.
- Probability of backtest overfitting (PBO) not computed; no held-out month. Acceptance criteria 2–3 of PRD §6.3 are unmet, not passed.
- Not yet tested against random lists of the same size (the permutation test has run for Strong List, Human Pace and Favorites only).
- Overlap with the Strong List (Jaccard) 0.84–0.98 across the folds — a slice of the same traders, not an independent result.
- Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
03 · The people
53 traders, re-checked nightly
All time
RankTraderCopy Score ↓ROIP&LOpen valueTrendVolumeCopied tradesJoined
10 of 53 traders
04 · The activity
Recent trades
Real trading · All users of this strategy · Filled buy orders
| Market | Status | Side | Outcome | Entry | Size | Realized P&L | Unrealized P&L | Copied from | Entered · UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WiWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | open | BUY | YES | 23.9¢ | $20.69 | $0.00 | −$1.60 | boyau | |
WiWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | open | BUY | YES | 25.6¢ | $20.40 | $0.00 | −$2.83 | boyau | |
JuJuventus FC vs. NEC: Both Teams to Score | open | BUY | YES | 48¢ | $20.00 | $0.00 | −$0.21 | kunkun168 | |
WiWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | open | BUY | YES | 40¢ | $20.51 | $0.00 | +$0.26 | boyau | |
MiMiami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | won | BUY | ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS | 36¢ | $20.00 | +$35.55 · provisional | — | LiquidatedDegen | |
MiMiami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | won | BUY | ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS | 37¢ | $20.55 | +$35.00 · provisional | — | LiquidatedDegen | |
WiWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 15? | lost | BUY | YES | 27¢ | $5.40 | −$5.40 · provisional | — | 0x01ce…27a2 | |
WiWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | open | BUY | NO | 49.2¢ | $20.00 | $0.00 | +$4.17 | seraphimproudleduck | |
WiWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | open | BUY | YES | 33¢ | $20.62 | $0.00 | −$0.31 | BigRabbit | |
WiWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | open | BUY | YES | 33¢ | $20.63 | $0.00 | −$0.31 | BigRabbit |
05 · Your bot
Choose your strategy. Let your bot do the trading.
You do not need to watch every trader or place each order yourself. Once you launch, Polycopy monitors the strategy’s signals and executes eligible trades within your settings.
1
Choose how to start
Try Paper Trading with simulated orders, or use Real Trading with Premium and a connected, funded Polymarket wallet.
2
Set your limits
Review the current settings in setup. Choose your budget, how to handle winnings and the risk limits available for your bot.
3
We handle execution
Polycopy maintains the trader list, checks each signal and submits eligible orders. Your bot follows the strategy’s current entry and exit settings.
4
Follow your results
See the strategy’s performance and trades here. Manage your own bot and positions from your portfolio, and pause new copies when you need to.
Ready to trade with real money?
Connect your Polymarket wallet first, then make sure it is funded and authorized for trading. You can try Paper Trading while you get set up.
Connect your wallet →Budget, winnings and open positions
Your budget limits how much the bot can have in play. The latest minimum and trade settings appear in setup. Available cash, existing positions and market conditions affect which orders can be placed; the bot may skip trades rather than exceed its limits.
Your funds stay in your own Polymarket wallet. You authorize Polycopy to place trades; your bot’s budget is not a deposit to Polycopy.
Choose how winnings affect your bot’s budget: Compound allows profits to increase its exposure cap; Keep leaves that cap at your chosen budget. Daily spending and loss limits still apply. Review these settings before you launch and as your needs change.
Positions may stay open until market settlement or close under the bot’s exit settings. There is no fixed holding period. Pausing or stopping new copies does not automatically sell existing positions; review those separately.
Strategy updates and changes
Kept current
We maintain the strategy. You can follow its changes.
The trader list and the strategy's settings can change as the strategy evolves. Check the trader list above for membership updates and the published configuration changes below.
You can inspect the current list, recorded trades and published results. Paper, backtested and real-trading results are labelled separately, with any coverage gaps identified.
Sep 14, 2026
published
no → yes
Strategy Bots and Trader Bots
Before you launch
Know what you are following
A Strategy Bot follows a managed group of traders. A Trader Bot follows an individual trader you choose. In either case, your results depend on the trades your bot can actually execute, your settings, costs and market outcomes.
Use the Performance and Trades sections to review the strategy’s record. That record belongs to the accounts shown, not to your future bot. Past results do not guarantee future returns.
06 · Questions
Before you start
What risks should I understand?
- The traders this copies will change over time. We choose them with the published rule and will not ask you before changing them.
- The rule can return fewer traders than today, including few enough that the bot trades little.
- Copying costs money: every filled order pays slippage and fees. A trader can be profitable and still not be worth copying after costs.
- Capacity is limited. The measured returns behind this strategy were observed while almost no capital was copying these traders, and we cap how much may follow each strategy for that reason.
- A strategy can be retired. If it is, your bot is paused with an explanation and your open positions still run to resolution.
- Most underdog positions lose. Losing streaks of a week or more are normal for this strategy and are not a sign it has stopped working.
Why does the win rate look low?
Because that is what winning on underdogs looks like. A 40% win rate at 30¢ average entry is very profitable. Judge this strategy by net return, not by wins.
Who decides which traders this copies?
Polycopy maintains the strategy’s selection rules and refreshes its trader list on a schedule. Your bot follows the current list and applies the strategy’s trade filters. See Traders for the current list and membership changes.
What happens when a trader leaves?
The bot stops opening new copies from that trader after the list updates. Leaving the list does not itself sell existing positions. Those positions remain subject to the bot’s exit settings and market settlement.
Can I change which traders it copies?
The trader list comes with the strategy. You choose your budget and available risk limits, and can pause or stop the bot. Use a Trader Bot when you want to choose an individual trader yourself.
Why is there a minimum budget?
The minimum gives the bot room to place trades within its current settings. Setup shows the latest minimum and limits. Your budget, available cash, market conditions and existing positions determine which trades can be placed; a larger budget does not guarantee more trades or better results.
What happens to winnings?
Compound reinvests realized profits, allowing the bot’s budget limit to grow. Keep leaves the budget fixed and keeps profits as cash. Available cash and the bot’s other limits still apply.
Do you hold my money?
Your funds stay in your own Polymarket wallet. You authorize Polycopy to place trades for your bot; you do not deposit the bot’s budget with Polycopy.
Am I locked in?
Pause temporarily prevents new copies and keeps existing positions. Stop and sell all ends a Real Trading bot and attempts to sell its positions; some may remain if they cannot be sold. Stop paper bot ends the simulation without moving real money.
Is Paper Trading the same strategy?
Paper Trading lets you try the strategy with simulated orders. Real Trading uses your connected Polymarket wallet. Live prices, fills, costs and available cash can produce different results from the paper run.
What do I need for Real Trading?
Real Trading requires Premium, a connected Polymarket wallet, available funds and trading authorization. Connect your wallet from Portfolio, then review the bot’s current settings before you launch. You can start with Paper Trading while you get ready.
Can I change my budget?
Open your bot and choose Adjust Budget. Enter the amount, choose Keep or Compound under Winnings, then select Save budget. Reducing the budget leaves existing positions open. If the control is unavailable, check the bot’s status.
Related strategies
Also worth a look
Flagship
Any trader on any market whose record still pays after copy costs.
Traders
61
Avg daily trades
17.6
per bot · 30 days
Real Money Performance
Last 7 days
+6.0%
$6,314 traded
Last 30 days
+3.6%
$11,309 traded
Human Pace
Traders who place a few orders a day, not hundreds.
Traders
43
Avg daily trades
14.2
per bot · 30 days
Real Money Performance
Last 7 days
+4.3%
$2,989 traded
Last 30 days
+9.1%
$5,503 traded
Soccer
Traders with a record in soccer.
Traders
33
Avg daily trades
3.7
per bot · 30 days
Real Money Performance
Last 7 days
+8.6%
$2,315 traded
Last 30 days
+9.5%
$2,982 traded