Prediction market guide
What Is Kalshi?
How the exchange works, who owns it, how it makes money and how it is regulated. Every regulatory point links to the CFTC filing, court ruling or news report it comes from.
Sources checked October 15, 2026
The short answer
Kalshi is a US exchange where people buy and sell yes-or-no contracts on real-world events, such as elections, economic data, weather and sports. A contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so its price reads like the market’s estimate of the probability.[1] The CFTC, the US derivatives regulator, designated Kalshi’s exchange, KalshiEX LLC, as a contract market in November 2020.[2]
How Kalshi works
Every Kalshi market is a question, and every question has a Yes side and a No side. Kalshi’s own explainer describes the mechanics this way: prices run from $0.01 to $0.99, and a buyer of Yes is matched with a buyer of No whose two prices add up to $1. If you buy Yes at $0.60, someone else has bought No at $0.40. Whoever is right collects the full $1.[1]
A market settles when its official source confirms the result, for example a league’s final statistics or a government data release. Kalshi’s help center notes that it may wait for that source before paying out, and that each market’s rules name the source and the exact resolution criteria.[3] Reading those rules before trading is the single most useful habit on any prediction market.
According to the Sixth Circuit’s September 2026 opinion, Kalshi first listed contracts on climate, crypto, economics, politics and popular culture, and began offering sports contracts in early 2025.[4]
Who owns Kalshi?
Kalshi says it was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, who met while studying at MIT.[5] The company went through Y Combinator’s Winter 2019 batch.[6]
It is privately held. Bloomberg reported on May 7, 2026 that Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in a round led by Coatue, with Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest also investing.[7] On September 29, 2026, Reuters reported that Kalshi was in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion more at a valuation of about $40 billion, citing people familiar with the matter.[8]
How does Kalshi make money?
Kalshi’s help center says it charges a transaction fee on the expected earnings of a contract. Some markets also carry maker fees on orders that rest on the order book, charged only if they fill. Fees differ between markets, often around big events, and the full schedule is published by Kalshi.[9]
Is Kalshi regulated?
Two federal registrations are on the CFTC’s public record:
- KalshiEX LLC, the exchange, was designated a contract market on November 3, 2020.[2]
- Kalshi Klear LLC, its clearinghouse, was registered as a derivatives clearing organization on August 28, 2024. An amended order in April 2026 lets it clear futures, options on futures and swaps.[10],[11]
What is contested is whether states can also regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts as gambling. In 2026 the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi in New Jersey, while the Ninth Circuit (Nevada) and the Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee) sided with the states.[4],[12],[13] The full timeline, with every ruling linked, is on our Is Kalshi legit? page.
Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket both list event contracts priced between 0 and 100 cents, and many of their markets cover the same events. They differ in how you fund an account, which markets they list, their fees and where they are available. Our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison covers those differences, and How Polymarket works explains the other side.
Polycopy is not affiliated with Kalshi. Polycopy is an independent tool for copying traders on Polymarket, and it has no Kalshi integration. Nothing on this page is legal, tax or investment advice.
Common questions
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a US exchange where people buy and sell yes-or-no contracts on real-world events. A contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so its price reads like the market’s estimate of the probability. The CFTC designated Kalshi’s exchange, KalshiEX LLC, as a contract market in November 2020.[1],[2]
How does Kalshi work?
Who owns Kalshi?
How does Kalshi make money?
Kalshi’s help center says it charges a transaction fee on the expected earnings of a contract. Some markets also carry maker fees on resting orders, charged only when they fill. The rate varies by market and is published in Kalshi’s fee schedule.[9]
Is Kalshi regulated?
Does Polycopy work with Kalshi?
No. Polycopy copies traders on Polymarket only. It has no Kalshi integration and is not affiliated with Kalshi.
Sources
Each source was opened and read on October 15, 2026. Kalshi’s legal position is changing quickly, so check the latest filings before relying on any of it.
- Kalshi, Working with Event Contracts, Undated article.
- CFTC, CFTC Designates KalshiEX LLC as a Contract Market (Release 8302-20), November 4, 2020.
- Kalshi Help Center, Market FAQs, Undated article.
- U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, KalshiEX LLC v. Schuler, Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235, September 25, 2026.
- Kalshi, About Kalshi, Undated company page.
- Y Combinator, Kalshi company profile (Winter 2019 batch), Undated company page.
- Bloomberg, Kalshi Secures $22 Billion Valuation in Coatue-Led Round, May 7, 2026.
- Reuters, Tiger Global, Dragoneer in talks to invest in Kalshi's new $1 billion fundraise, sources say, September 29, 2026.
- Kalshi Help Center, Fees, April 19, 2026.
- CFTC, CFTC Grants Kalshi Klear LLC DCO Registration (Release 8957-24), August 29, 2024.
- CFTC, Derivatives Clearing Organizations filing 53075: Kalshi Klear LLC (status: Registered), Registered August 28, 2024, amended order April 15, 2026.
- U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, April 6, 2026.
- U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (via GovInfo), KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, No. 25-7516, August 28, 2026.